Despite worldwide efforts to contain the new coronavirus, hot spots continue to emerge and the number of cases is increasing. It’s only been a couple of months since the virus, called SARS-CoV-2, made its first public appearance in seafood and live animal market in Wuhan, China. Since then, the virus has jumped borders, infected more than 82,500 people and killed 2,810. But as with all past outbreaks, it will eventually come to an end.
So how will this story end? Experts say that one possibility is that cases of the disease will begin to decrease when enough people develop immunity, either by infection or vaccination. Another possible scenario is that the virus will continue to circulate and establish itself as a common respiratory virus.
At this point, it is very unlikely that the outbreak is contained in some places, according to experts. “This virus is increasingly likely to spread throughout the world,” said Aubree Gordon, associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan. “We can still have some chance to contain it, but that window seems to be closing.”
The outbreak already meets two criteria of a pandemic: SARS-CoV-2 can infect people and cause disease, and can easily spread from person to person, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said Tuesday.) from the USA. As the virus begins to infect communities in more countries, it is approaching the fulfillment of the third criterion: the worldwide spread of the virus.
About 95% of cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, are found in mainland China. However, peaks are occurring in other countries, including South Korea, Iran, Italy, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, India, Pakistan, and Japan. The CDC announced the first case of probable “community spread” of the virus in a patient in Northern California with no links to an affected region.
According to Gordon, SARS-CoV-2 spreads very easily, most cases of COVID-19 are not serious and therefore cannot be identified, and the virus has a long incubation period, or the time between a person is infected and when they begin to show symptoms, Gordon said. Here are a few tweets from the World Health Organization; how to take safety measures against this virus.
In addition, all containment efforts are based on what we know about the virus, and there is still a lot we don’t know. Quarantine periods are usually 14 days, according to the first studies that suggested it was the longest possible incubation period for the virus. But there is some evidence that the incubation period could be much longer.
There is a possibility that, even if we manage to stifle this virus, it could become a seasonal disease, returning every year like other seasonal diseases such as the flu or colds, Epstein said. If that happens, there is a possibility that it will have less impact during subsequent circulations because more people will have accumulated immunity, Adalja said. But it is still unclear whether humans can be reinfected with this virus, Gordon said. The other circulating coronaviruses can reinfect people because our immunity to them can affect time.
However, unmodified immunity with all viruses. With viruses as the cause of measles, once someone has it or has been vaccinated against it, they will not be infected again, Schaffner said.
Although diminishing immunity is the most likely cause of reinfection, it is also possible for viruses to mutate enough to evade the immune system. “But at this time, there is no evidence that the coronavirus is mutating significantly,” Gordon said. “The available viral sequences are almost identical.” It is difficult to predict how the virus will behave. We hope the cure for this virus works more rapidly, as this is affecting all major industries globally. Let us know in comments what are your thoughts on it.